Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh

  1. Al-Fateh41%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Al Riyadh33%

1.44 expected goals for Al-Fateh

1.22 expected goals for Al Riyadh

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Al-Fateh has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Al Riyadh win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Fateh defence, which lets in 11% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 11.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Fateh

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Fateh attack+2%
  3. Al Riyadh defence−7%

Expected goals1.44

Al Riyadh

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al Riyadh attack0%
  2. Al-Fateh defence−11%

Expected goals1.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

6.2 for Al-Fateh and 4.9 for Al Riyadh

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Al-Fateh and 2.3 for Al Riyadh

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.9 expected

13.1 for Al-Fateh and 13.8 for Al Riyadh

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

24.1 expected

11.4 for Al-Fateh and 12.7 for Al Riyadh

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.