Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC

  1. Al-Ettifaq16%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Al-Hilal Saudi FC62%

0.90 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq

1.99 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC the clear favourite: 62% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack, which scores 109% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Ettifaq

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Ettifaq attack+36%
  3. Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence−56%

Expected goals0.90

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack+109%
  2. Al-Ettifaq defence−30%

Expected goals1.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

4.8 for Al-Ettifaq and 4.8 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.4 for Al-Ettifaq and 2.2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

25.6 expected

11.5 for Al-Ettifaq and 14.1 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

24.2 expected

13.5 for Al-Ettifaq and 10.7 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.