Thursday 29 October, 12:00
Al Riyadh vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Al Riyadh12%
- Draw18%
- Al-Qadisiyah FC70%
0.82 expected goals for Al Riyadh
2.41 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Al Riyadh
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Al Riyadh attack+3%
- Al-Qadisiyah FC defence−47%
Expected goals0.82
Al-Qadisiyah FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al-Qadisiyah FC attack+116%
- Al Riyadh defence−18%
Expected goals2.41
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Over 3.5 goals40%
- Over 4.5 goals22%
- Both teams score55%
- Al Riyadh or draw30%
- Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC89%
- No draw82%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.6 expected
5.4 for Al Riyadh and 5.2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.7 for Al Riyadh and 2.0 for Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards32%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
26.5 expected
13.1 for Al Riyadh and 13.4 for Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots70%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
21.8 expected
10.6 for Al Riyadh and 11.2 for Al-Qadisiyah FC
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls43%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.