Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (Saudi Arabia)

Thursday 29 October, 12:00

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh

  1. Al-Hilal Saudi FC83%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Al-Fateh4%

3.03 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.63 expected goals for Al-Fateh

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack+117%
  3. Al-Fateh defence−7%

Expected goals3.03

Al-Fateh

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Fateh attack+4%
  2. Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence−55%

Expected goals0.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

6.8 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 4.2 for Al-Fateh

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.3 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 2.5 for Al-Fateh

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

28.2 expected

19.6 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 8.5 for Al-Fateh

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.8 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 12.1 for Al-Fateh

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.