Thursday 29 October, 12:00
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC
- Abha16%
- Draw23%
- Al-Ittihad FC61%
0.84 expected goals for Abha
1.86 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Abha
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Abha attack−5%
- Al-Ittihad FC defence−41%
Expected goals0.84
Al-Ittihad FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Al-Ittihad FC attack+81%
- Abha defence−24%
Expected goals1.87
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals29%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score53%
- Abha or draw39%
- Draw or Al-Ittihad FC84%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.3 expected
4.5 for Abha and 4.8 for Al-Ittihad FC
- Over 8.5 corners55%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.9 for Abha and 2.2 for Al-Ittihad FC
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
24.8 expected
9.9 for Abha and 14.9 for Al-Ittihad FC
- Over 20.5 shots72%
- Over 22.5 shots60%
- Over 24.5 shots48%
Fouls
22.4 expected
11.3 for Abha and 11.1 for Al-Ittihad FC
- Over 20.5 fouls63%
- Over 22.5 fouls48%
- Over 24.5 fouls33%
Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.