NEOM vs Abha

NEOM55%
Draw26%
Abha19%

1.52 expected goals for NEOM

0.76 expected goals for Abha

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes NEOM the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals67%It happened
Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals20%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Both teams score48%
NEOM or draw81%
Draw or Abha45%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.9 for NEOM and 3.4 for Abha

Over 8.5 corners55%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for NEOM and 2.4 for Abha

Over 3.5 cards59%
Over 4.5 cards39%
Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

24.2 expected

15.4 for NEOM and 8.8 for Abha

Over 20.5 shots69%
Over 22.5 shots57%
Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.0 for NEOM and 11.9 for Abha

Over 20.5 fouls66%
Over 22.5 fouls51%
Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.