Ascoli vs Palermo
- Ascoli28%
- Draw31%
- Palermo41%
1.13 expected goals for Ascoli
1.54 expected goals for Palermo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Palermo has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Ascoli win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Palermo attack, which scores 44% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Ascoli defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Ascoli
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Ascoli attack−13%
- Palermo defence−14%
Expected goals1.13
Palermo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Palermo attack+44%
- Ascoli defence−21%
Expected goals1.54
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score53%
- Ascoli or draw59%
- Draw or Palermo72%
- No draw69%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
6.0 for Ascoli and 4.2 for Palermo
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.8 for Ascoli and 2.1 for Palermo
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
29.6 expected
13.9 for Ascoli and 15.7 for Palermo
- Over 20.5 shots89%
- Over 22.5 shots82%
- Over 24.5 shots73%
Fouls
23.2 expected
11.2 for Ascoli and 12.0 for Palermo
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.