Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus

  1. Palermo67%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Vicenza Virtus10%

2.51 expected goals for Palermo

0.93 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Palermo the clear favourite: 67% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Palermo attack, which scores 42% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Vicenza Virtus attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Palermo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Palermo attack+42%
  3. Vicenza Virtus defence+17%

Expected goals2.51

Vicenza Virtus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vicenza Virtus attack−21%
  2. Palermo defence−14%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.3 for Palermo and 4.6 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Palermo and 2.3 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

31.6 expected

21.6 for Palermo and 10.0 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

25.2 expected

11.1 for Palermo and 14.2 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.