Saturday 31 October, 09:00
Cremonese vs Benevento
- Cremonese44%
- Draw32%
- Benevento24%
1.44 expected goals for Cremonese
0.98 expected goals for Benevento
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Cremonese has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Benevento win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cremonese defence, which lets in 20% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Cremonese
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Cremonese attack−11%
- Benevento defence+7%
Expected goals1.44
Benevento
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Benevento attack−10%
- Cremonese defence−20%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals22%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score53%
- Cremonese or draw76%
- Draw or Benevento56%
- No draw68%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.4 for Cremonese and 4.1 for Benevento
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.6 for Cremonese and 2.6 for Benevento
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
26.0 expected
12.7 for Cremonese and 13.3 for Benevento
- Over 20.5 shots78%
- Over 22.5 shots68%
- Over 24.5 shots56%
Fouls
23.3 expected
10.8 for Cremonese and 12.5 for Benevento
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls55%
- Over 24.5 fouls40%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.