Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Tuesday 27 October, 09:00

Final score

Benevento1-1Catanzaro

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Benevento win (45%).

Benevento vs Catanzaro

  1. Benevento45%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Catanzaro27%

2.08 expected goals for Benevento

1.59 expected goals for Catanzaro

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Benevento has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Catanzaro win at 27%. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals50%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.3 for Benevento and 4.6 for Catanzaro

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Benevento and 2.4 for Catanzaro

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.9 for Benevento and 10.0 for Catanzaro

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

24.8 expected

13.8 for Benevento and 11.0 for Catanzaro

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.