Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 24 October, 08:00

Final score

Sudtirol1-1Sampdoria

The model gave this result 35%. Its most likely result was a Sudtirol win (43%).

Sudtirol vs Sampdoria

  1. Sudtirol43%
  2. Draw35%
  3. Sampdoria22%

1.22 expected goals for Sudtirol

0.79 expected goals for Sampdoria

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sudtirol has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 35% and a Sampdoria win at 22%. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals86%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals60%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals14%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals5%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

4.8 for Sudtirol and 4.9 for Sampdoria

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.1 for Sudtirol and 2.0 for Sampdoria

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

25.4 expected

13.3 for Sudtirol and 12.1 for Sampdoria

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.5 for Sudtirol and 10.9 for Sampdoria

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.