Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 24 October, 08:00

Final score

Empoli0-2Vicenza Virtus

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Empoli win (43%).

Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus

  1. Empoli43%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Vicenza Virtus26%

1.54 expected goals for Empoli

1.15 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Empoli has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Vicenza Virtus win at 26%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.1 for Empoli and 4.2 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for Empoli and 2.0 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

26.8 expected

13.6 for Empoli and 13.2 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

26.6 expected

12.9 for Empoli and 13.8 for Vicenza Virtus

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls76%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.