Probably Football

Matches

Serie B (Italy)

Saturday 24 October, 08:00

Final score

Catanzaro1-6Ascoli

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Catanzaro win (37%).

Catanzaro vs Ascoli

  1. Catanzaro37%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Ascoli31%

1.39 expected goals for Catanzaro

1.30 expected goals for Ascoli

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.2 for Catanzaro and 4.8 for Ascoli

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for Catanzaro and 2.3 for Ascoli

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.0 expected

13.2 for Catanzaro and 13.8 for Ascoli

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.5 for Catanzaro and 11.8 for Ascoli

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.