Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Chile)

Concón National vs Municipal Salamanca

  1. Concón National35%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Municipal Salamanca37%

1.06 expected goals for Concón National

1.14 expected goals for Municipal Salamanca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Municipal Salamanca defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Municipal Salamanca attack, which scores 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Concón National

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Concón National attack−4%
  3. Municipal Salamanca defence−27%

Expected goals1.06

Municipal Salamanca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Municipal Salamanca attack−23%
  2. Concón National defence+9%

Expected goals1.14

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals65%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals18%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.