Sunday 25 October, 08:00
Final score
1899 Hoffenheim W3-1Mainz 05 W
The model's most likely result happened: a 1899 Hoffenheim W win (77%).
1899 Hoffenheim W vs Mainz 05 W
- 1899 Hoffenheim W77%
- Draw14%
- Mainz 05 W9%
2.61 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim W
0.85 expected goals for Mainz 05 W
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes 1899 Hoffenheim W the clear favourite: 77% to win. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.7 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals66%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals46%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals27%It did not happen
- Both teams score51%
- 1899 Hoffenheim W or draw91%
- Draw or Mainz 05 W23%
- No draw86%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
5.2 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 5.5 for Mainz 05 W
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners59%
- Over 10.5 corners49%
Cards
3.5 expected
1.4 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 2.1 for Mainz 05 W
- Over 3.5 cards46%
- Over 4.5 cards27%
- Over 5.5 cards14%
Shots
31.0 expected
17.4 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 13.5 for Mainz 05 W
- Over 20.5 shots92%
- Over 22.5 shots86%
- Over 24.5 shots78%
Fouls
20.2 expected
9.2 for 1899 Hoffenheim W and 11.1 for Mainz 05 W
- Over 20.5 fouls46%
- Over 22.5 fouls31%
- Over 24.5 fouls19%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.