Probably Football

Matches

Taça da Liga (Portugal)

Tuesday 27 October, 15:00

Final score

FC Porto1-0Academico Viseu

The model's most likely result happened: a FC Porto win (63%).

FC Porto vs Academico Viseu

  1. FC Porto63%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Academico Viseu14%

1.72 expected goals for FC Porto

0.64 expected goals for Academico Viseu

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Porto the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.5 for FC Porto and 3.7 for Academico Viseu

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.6 for FC Porto and 2.6 for Academico Viseu

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

31.2 expected

20.9 for FC Porto and 10.3 for Academico Viseu

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

24.7 expected

11.2 for FC Porto and 13.4 for Academico Viseu

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.