Thursday 29 October, 15:45
Benfica vs GIL Vicente
- Benfica81%
- Draw12%
- GIL Vicente7%
2.73 expected goals for Benfica
0.70 expected goals for GIL Vicente
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Benfica
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Benfica attack+219%
- GIL Vicente defence−43%
Expected goals2.73
GIL Vicente
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- GIL Vicente attack+22%
- Benfica defence−58%
Expected goals0.70
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals45%
- Over 4.5 goals26%
- Both teams score49%
- Benfica or draw93%
- Draw or GIL Vicente19%
- No draw88%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.7 for Benfica and 4.3 for GIL Vicente
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.3 for Benfica and 2.3 for GIL Vicente
- Over 3.5 cards68%
- Over 4.5 cards49%
- Over 5.5 cards32%
Shots
29.1 expected
17.0 for Benfica and 12.1 for GIL Vicente
- Over 20.5 shots88%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots71%
Fouls
24.4 expected
11.1 for Benfica and 13.3 for GIL Vicente
- Over 20.5 fouls76%
- Over 22.5 fouls62%
- Over 24.5 fouls48%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.