Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Verl vs SV Wehen

  1. Verl39%
  2. Draw25%
  3. SV Wehen36%

1.56 expected goals for Verl

1.54 expected goals for SV Wehen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Verl. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Verl

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Verl attack+2%
  3. SV Wehen defence+1%

Expected goals1.56

SV Wehen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SV Wehen attack+2%
  2. Verl defence+10%

Expected goals1.54

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

6.4 for Verl and 4.2 for SV Wehen

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Verl and 2.1 for SV Wehen

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.0 expected

14.0 for Verl and 11.9 for SV Wehen

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

21.4 expected

11.5 for Verl and 9.8 for SV Wehen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.