Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim

  1. FC Saarbrücken46%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Waldhof Mannheim29%

2.04 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken

1.50 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Saarbrücken has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Waldhof Mannheim win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Waldhof Mannheim defence, which lets in 25% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Saarbrücken defence, which lets in 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Saarbrücken

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Saarbrücken attack+8%
  3. Waldhof Mannheim defence+25%

Expected goals2.04

Waldhof Mannheim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Waldhof Mannheim attack−5%
  2. FC Saarbrücken defence+16%

Expected goals1.50

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

6.1 for FC Saarbrücken and 4.3 for Waldhof Mannheim

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for FC Saarbrücken and 2.2 for Waldhof Mannheim

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

26.1 expected

14.5 for FC Saarbrücken and 11.6 for Waldhof Mannheim

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.4 for FC Saarbrücken and 12.9 for Waldhof Mannheim

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.