Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen

  1. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach29%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Rot-Weiß Essen46%

1.34 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.13 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rot-Weiß Essen has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence, which lets in 45% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack−8%
  3. Rot-Weiß Essen defence−3%

Expected goals1.34

Rot-Weiß Essen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rot-Weiß Essen attack+8%
  2. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence+45%

Expected goals2.13

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.9 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 4.5 for Rot-Weiß Essen

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 2.4 for Rot-Weiß Essen

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.2 expected

11.6 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 15.6 for Rot-Weiß Essen

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

24.3 expected

13.0 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 11.3 for Rot-Weiß Essen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.