Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster

  1. Alemannia Aachen52%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Preußen Münster23%

2.16 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen

1.28 expected goals for Preußen Münster

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Alemannia Aachen has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Preußen Münster win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Preußen Münster defence, which lets in 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Alemannia Aachen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Alemannia Aachen attack+14%
  3. Preußen Münster defence+26%

Expected goals2.16

Preußen Münster

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Preußen Münster attack−6%
  2. Alemannia Aachen defence0%

Expected goals1.28

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.7 for Alemannia Aachen and 3.9 for Preußen Münster

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Alemannia Aachen and 2.4 for Preußen Münster

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.0 expected

15.3 for Alemannia Aachen and 10.7 for Preußen Münster

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

25.1 expected

12.4 for Alemannia Aachen and 12.7 for Preußen Münster

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.