Probably Football

Matches

3. Liga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 07:00

Final score

Havelse3-2FC Saarbrücken

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a FC Saarbrücken win (50%).

Havelse vs FC Saarbrücken

  1. Havelse25%
  2. Draw25%
  3. FC Saarbrücken50%

1.45 expected goals for Havelse

2.65 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Saarbrücken has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Havelse win at 25%. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals58%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals39%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.6 for Havelse and 4.8 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.1 for Havelse and 2.0 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

23.9 expected

11.4 for Havelse and 12.4 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

24.4 expected

13.8 for Havelse and 10.5 for FC Saarbrücken

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.