Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FC Sochi vs Ural

  1. FC Sochi36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Ural37%

1.26 expected goals for FC Sochi

1.33 expected goals for Ural

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ural defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Sochi defence, which lets in 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Sochi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Sochi attack+16%
  3. Ural defence−28%

Expected goals1.26

Ural

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ural attack+18%
  2. FC Sochi defence−17%

Expected goals1.33

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.