Probably Football

Matches

First League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

  1. Chelyabinsk31%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Shinnik Yaroslavl40%

1.01 expected goals for Chelyabinsk

1.25 expected goals for Shinnik Yaroslavl

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Shinnik Yaroslavl has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Chelyabinsk win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Shinnik Yaroslavl defence, which lets in 27% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Chelyabinsk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Chelyabinsk attack−8%
  3. Shinnik Yaroslavl defence−27%

Expected goals1.01

Shinnik Yaroslavl

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Shinnik Yaroslavl attack−10%
  2. Chelyabinsk defence+2%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.