Portimonense vs Torreense
- Portimonense29%
- Draw28%
- Torreense43%
0.96 expected goals for Portimonense
1.33 expected goals for Torreense
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Torreense has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Portimonense win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Torreense defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Portimonense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Portimonense attack−11%
- Torreense defence−28%
Expected goals0.96
Torreense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Torreense attack+10%
- Portimonense defence−11%
Expected goals1.33
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals89%
- Over 1.5 goals67%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
- Over 4.5 goals8%
- Both teams score52%
- Portimonense or draw57%
- Draw or Torreense71%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.