Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Penafiel vs Feirense

  1. Penafiel53%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Feirense19%

1.55 expected goals for Penafiel

0.73 expected goals for Feirense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Penafiel has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Feirense win at 19%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Feirense attack, which scores 33% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Penafiel attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Penafiel

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Penafiel attack+25%
  3. Feirense defence−17%

Expected goals1.55

Feirense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Feirense attack−33%
  2. Penafiel defence−19%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.