Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Leixoes vs Sporting CP B

  1. Leixoes34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Sporting CP B38%

1.20 expected goals for Leixoes

1.26 expected goals for Sporting CP B

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sporting CP B defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Leixoes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Leixoes attack+7%
  3. Sporting CP B defence−26%

Expected goals1.20

Sporting CP B

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sporting CP B attack+2%
  2. Leixoes defence−9%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.