Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

União de Leiria vs AVS

  1. União de Leiria34%
  2. Draw27%
  3. AVS39%

1.25 expected goals for União de Leiria

1.32 expected goals for AVS

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AVS defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the União de Leiria attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

União de Leiria

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. União de Leiria attack+25%
  3. AVS defence−34%

Expected goals1.25

AVS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AVS attack+10%
  2. União de Leiria defence−12%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.