Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Benfica B vs Chaves

  1. Benfica B42%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Chaves31%

1.43 expected goals for Benfica B

1.09 expected goals for Chaves

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Benfica B has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Chaves win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Benfica B defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Benfica B

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Benfica B attack−4%
  3. Chaves defence−1%

Expected goals1.43

Chaves

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Chaves attack+7%
  2. Benfica B defence−25%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.