Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Amarante vs FC Porto B

  1. Amarante43%
  2. Draw27%
  3. FC Porto B30%

1.60 expected goals for Amarante

1.17 expected goals for FC Porto B

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Amarante has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a FC Porto B win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Amarante. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Amarante

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Amarante attack+10%
  3. FC Porto B defence−4%

Expected goals1.60

FC Porto B

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Porto B attack−6%
  2. Amarante defence−8%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.