Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  1. Dynamo Dresden47%
  2. Draw25%
  3. SpVgg Greuther Fürth28%

1.74 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden

1.27 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Dynamo Dresden has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dynamo Dresden attack, which scores 27% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Dynamo Dresden defence, which lets in 16% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dynamo Dresden

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dynamo Dresden attack+27%
  3. SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence−9%

Expected goals1.74

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack+11%
  2. Dynamo Dresden defence−16%

Expected goals1.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.8 for Dynamo Dresden and 4.5 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Dynamo Dresden and 2.2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.7 expected

14.2 for Dynamo Dresden and 12.5 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

19.6 expected

9.9 for Dynamo Dresden and 9.8 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

  1. Over 20.5 fouls41%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls26%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls15%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.