Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 14:30

Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim

  1. Karlsruher SC35%
  2. Draw23%
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim42%

1.80 expected goals for Karlsruher SC

2.25 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1. FC Heidenheim attack, which scores 52% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Karlsruher SC attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Karlsruher SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Karlsruher SC attack+24%
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim defence−4%

Expected goals1.81

1. FC Heidenheim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1. FC Heidenheim attack+52%
  2. Karlsruher SC defence+9%

Expected goals2.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%
  4. Over 3.5 goals58%
  5. Over 4.5 goals38%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.6 for Karlsruher SC and 4.4 for 1. FC Heidenheim

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Karlsruher SC and 2.2 for 1. FC Heidenheim

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.8 for Karlsruher SC and 12.2 for 1. FC Heidenheim

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.6 for Karlsruher SC and 10.8 for 1. FC Heidenheim

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.