Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Hannover 96 vs Dynamo Dresden

  1. Hannover 9642%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Dynamo Dresden32%

1.61 expected goals for Hannover 96

1.42 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Hannover 96 has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Dynamo Dresden win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dynamo Dresden attack, which scores 29% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hannover 96 attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hannover 96

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hannover 96 attack+28%
  3. Dynamo Dresden defence−17%

Expected goals1.61

Dynamo Dresden

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dynamo Dresden attack+29%
  2. Hannover 96 defence−19%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.6 for Hannover 96 and 5.2 for Dynamo Dresden

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Hannover 96 and 2.3 for Dynamo Dresden

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

28.2 expected

14.6 for Hannover 96 and 13.6 for Dynamo Dresden

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

22.4 expected

11.4 for Hannover 96 and 11.0 for Dynamo Dresden

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.