Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Friday 30 October, 12:30

Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum

  1. Energie Cottbus33%
  2. Draw28%
  3. VfL Bochum39%

1.11 expected goals for Energie Cottbus

1.43 expected goals for VfL Bochum

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Energie Cottbus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Energie Cottbus attack+11%
  3. VfL Bochum defence−34%

Expected goals1.11

VfL Bochum

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. VfL Bochum attack+2%
  2. Energie Cottbus defence+3%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.0 expected

6.4 for Energie Cottbus and 4.6 for VfL Bochum

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners61%
  3. Over 10.5 corners51%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Energie Cottbus and 2.4 for VfL Bochum

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

30.8 expected

16.2 for Energie Cottbus and 14.6 for VfL Bochum

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

23.2 expected

10.5 for Energie Cottbus and 12.7 for VfL Bochum

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.