Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager

  1. Thisted FC34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Fremad Amager38%

1.18 expected goals for Thisted FC

1.20 expected goals for Fremad Amager

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Fremad Amager defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Thisted FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Thisted FC attack−8%
  3. Fremad Amager defence−15%

Expected goals1.18

Fremad Amager

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Fremad Amager attack−11%
  2. Thisted FC defence−1%

Expected goals1.20

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.