Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Roskilde vs HIK

  1. Roskilde73%
  2. Draw13%
  3. HIK14%

2.75 expected goals for Roskilde

0.87 expected goals for HIK

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Roskilde the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Roskilde attack, which scores 56% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Roskilde defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Roskilde

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Roskilde attack+56%
  3. HIK defence+17%

Expected goals2.75

HIK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. HIK attack−6%
  2. Roskilde defence−32%

Expected goals0.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.