Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

B 93 vs Skive

  1. B 9343%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Skive32%

1.84 expected goals for B 93

1.40 expected goals for Skive

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

B 93 has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Skive win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the B 93 attack, which scores 38% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

B 93

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. B 93 attack+38%
  3. Skive defence−12%

Expected goals1.84

Skive

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Skive attack+5%
  2. B 93 defence−2%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.