Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 09:00

Fremad Amager vs Middelfart

  1. Fremad Amager35%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Middelfart39%

1.52 expected goals for Fremad Amager

1.56 expected goals for Middelfart

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Middelfart attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Fremad Amager defence, which lets in 13% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fremad Amager

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fremad Amager attack−13%
  3. Middelfart defence+15%

Expected goals1.52

Middelfart

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Middelfart attack+32%
  2. Fremad Amager defence−13%

Expected goals1.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.