Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Friday 30 October, 13:00

Skive vs VSK Århus

  1. Skive29%
  2. Draw28%
  3. VSK Århus43%

1.13 expected goals for Skive

1.36 expected goals for VSK Århus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Skive

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Skive attack−5%
  3. VSK Århus defence−21%

Expected goals1.13

VSK Århus

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. VSK Århus attack+12%
  2. Skive defence−11%

Expected goals1.36

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.