Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Friday 30 October, 13:00

HIK vs Nykobing FC

  1. HIK23%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Nykobing FC56%

1.47 expected goals for HIK

2.37 expected goals for Nykobing FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

HIK

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. HIK attack−5%
  3. Nykobing FC defence+2%

Expected goals1.47

Nykobing FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nykobing FC attack+57%
  2. HIK defence+11%

Expected goals2.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 01:16 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.