GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes
- GIL Vicente35%
- Draw31%
- Guimaraes34%
1.10 expected goals for GIL Vicente
1.05 expected goals for Guimaraes
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 35%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Guimaraes defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the GIL Vicente defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
GIL Vicente
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- GIL Vicente attack+24%
- Guimaraes defence−41%
Expected goals1.10
Guimaraes
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Guimaraes attack+31%
- GIL Vicente defence−41%
Expected goals1.05
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals88%
- Over 1.5 goals64%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Over 3.5 goals17%
- Over 4.5 goals7%
- Both teams score48%
- GIL Vicente or draw66%
- Draw or Guimaraes65%
- No draw69%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.6 expected
4.7 for GIL Vicente and 5.9 for Guimaraes
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners48%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.8 for GIL Vicente and 2.4 for Guimaraes
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
26.3 expected
13.3 for GIL Vicente and 13.0 for Guimaraes
- Over 20.5 shots79%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
25.9 expected
12.2 for GIL Vicente and 13.7 for Guimaraes
- Over 20.5 fouls83%
- Over 22.5 fouls72%
- Over 24.5 fouls58%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.