Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Benfica vs Alverca

  1. Benfica93%
  2. Draw4%
  3. Alverca3%

3.53 expected goals for Benfica

0.74 expected goals for Alverca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Benfica the clear favourite: 93% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Benfica attack, which scores 233% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Benfica defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Benfica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Benfica attack+233%
  3. Alverca defence−30%

Expected goals3.53

Alverca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Alverca attack+28%
  2. Benfica defence−57%

Expected goals0.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals75%
  4. Over 3.5 goals62%
  5. Over 4.5 goals42%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.3 for Benfica and 3.9 for Alverca

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.4 for Benfica and 2.4 for Alverca

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

28.7 expected

18.5 for Benfica and 10.2 for Alverca

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

25.6 expected

10.4 for Benfica and 15.1 for Alverca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.