Guimaraes vs Maritimo

Guimaraes42%
Draw31%
Maritimo27%

1.26 expected goals for Guimaraes

0.98 expected goals for Maritimo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Guimaraes has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Maritimo win at 27%. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals66%It happened
Over 2.5 goals44%It happened
Over 3.5 goals19%It happened
Over 4.5 goals8%It happened

Both teams score48%
Guimaraes or draw73%
Draw or Maritimo58%
No draw69%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.7 for Guimaraes and 3.9 for Maritimo

Over 8.5 corners58%
Over 9.5 corners48%
Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Guimaraes and 2.1 for Maritimo

Over 3.5 cards57%
Over 4.5 cards38%
Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

26.3 expected

16.4 for Guimaraes and 9.9 for Maritimo

Over 20.5 shots79%
Over 22.5 shots69%
Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

26.1 expected

13.5 for Guimaraes and 12.7 for Maritimo

Over 20.5 fouls84%
Over 22.5 fouls73%
Over 24.5 fouls60%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.