Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Nacional1-0SC Braga

The model gave this result 17%. Its most likely result was a SC Braga win (56%).

Nacional vs SC Braga

  1. Nacional17%
  2. Draw27%
  3. SC Braga56%

0.82 expected goals for Nacional

1.55 expected goals for SC Braga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes SC Braga the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.7 for Nacional and 4.2 for SC Braga

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Nacional and 2.1 for SC Braga

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

23.2 expected

10.4 for Nacional and 12.8 for SC Braga

  1. Over 20.5 shots64%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots40%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.0 for Nacional and 11.8 for SC Braga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.