Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Estrela0-2Casa Pia

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Estrela win (47%).

Estrela vs Casa Pia

  1. Estrela47%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Casa Pia24%

1.44 expected goals for Estrela

1.02 expected goals for Casa Pia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Estrela has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Casa Pia win at 24%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.2 for Estrela and 4.0 for Casa Pia

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Estrela and 2.5 for Casa Pia

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

26.3 expected

17.1 for Estrela and 9.2 for Casa Pia

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.3 expected

11.2 for Estrela and 12.1 for Casa Pia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.