Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

  1. SV Elversberg35%
  2. Draw26%
  3. FSV Mainz 0539%

1.55 expected goals for SV Elversberg

1.74 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FSV Mainz 05 attack, which scores 69% more goals than an average team. Next comes the SV Elversberg attack, which scores 56% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SV Elversberg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SV Elversberg attack+56%
  3. FSV Mainz 05 defence−34%

Expected goals1.55

FSV Mainz 05

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FSV Mainz 05 attack+69%
  2. SV Elversberg defence−25%

Expected goals1.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.1 for SV Elversberg and 4.7 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for SV Elversberg and 2.4 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.4 expected

13.5 for SV Elversberg and 15.9 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

23.1 expected

11.1 for SV Elversberg and 12.0 for FSV Mainz 05

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.