Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig

  1. FC Schalke 0421%
  2. Draw25%
  3. RB Leipzig54%

0.98 expected goals for FC Schalke 04

1.92 expected goals for RB Leipzig

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

RB Leipzig has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a FC Schalke 04 win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the RB Leipzig attack, which scores 142% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Schalke 04 defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Schalke 04

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Schalke 04 attack+12%
  3. RB Leipzig defence−42%

Expected goals0.98

RB Leipzig

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. RB Leipzig attack+142%
  2. FC Schalke 04 defence−42%

Expected goals1.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.0 for FC Schalke 04 and 4.0 for RB Leipzig

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for FC Schalke 04 and 2.1 for RB Leipzig

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.6 expected

13.8 for FC Schalke 04 and 12.7 for RB Leipzig

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.7 for FC Schalke 04 and 11.8 for RB Leipzig

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.