Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 08:30

Final score

SC Paderborn 071-0Hamburger SV

The model's most likely result happened: a SC Paderborn 07 win (40%).

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

  1. SC Paderborn 0740%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Hamburger SV33%

1.50 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07

1.38 expected goals for Hamburger SV

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for SC Paderborn 07 and 4.5 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.9 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2.0 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

29.6 expected

16.4 for SC Paderborn 07 and 13.2 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.8 for SC Paderborn 07 and 12.6 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.