Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 08:30

Final score

FC Augsburg1-1Union Berlin

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a FC Augsburg win (54%).

FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin

  1. FC Augsburg54%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Union Berlin22%

2.11 expected goals for FC Augsburg

1.25 expected goals for Union Berlin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FC Augsburg has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Union Berlin win at 22%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.6 for FC Augsburg and 4.8 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.9 for FC Augsburg and 2.0 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

31.4 expected

16.6 for FC Augsburg and 14.7 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

21.0 expected

10.1 for FC Augsburg and 10.8 for Union Berlin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.