Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Versailles vs Aubagne

  1. Versailles54%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Aubagne18%

1.80 expected goals for Versailles

0.88 expected goals for Aubagne

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Versailles has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Aubagne win at 18%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Aubagne attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Versailles defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Versailles

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Versailles attack+16%
  3. Aubagne defence+3%

Expected goals1.80

Aubagne

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aubagne attack−21%
  2. Versailles defence−18%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.